Presidential Returns

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April 6, 2022

The third year of a president’s term (for both parties), has been positive 91% of the time, with the average return being 17.8%. Further, there has only ever been 2 negative quarters in the 3rd year of a Presidents term, which was under Hoover, during the midst of the great depression and FDR’s second term. Meaning we have not had a negative stock market return in the 3rd year of a president’s cycle for 80 years. 

Markets under democratic presidents have averaged 13.5% while republicans have averaged 7.7%. 

Source: S&P 500 & MG&A

However, the best returns for democratic presidents come when either the house or senate is controlled by Republicans, returning an average of 15.89% and 15.82% accordingly.

When one party controls all three branches of government the average return is higher than the average of the S&P 500. (Starting from the end of the great depression).



The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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