The third year of a president’s term (for both parties), has been positive 91% of the time, with the average return being 17.8%. Further, there has only ever been 2 negative quarters in the 3rd year of a Presidents term, which was under Hoover, during the midst of the great depression and FDR’s second term. Meaning we have not had a negative stock market return in the 3rd year of a president’s cycle for 80 years.
Markets under democratic presidents have averaged 13.5% while republicans have averaged 7.7%.
However, the best returns for democratic presidents come when either the house or senate is controlled by Republicans, returning an average of 15.89% and 15.82% accordingly.