Is this the Bottom? No One Freaking Knows!

young man in a suit with a speech bubble asking if this is the bottom of the stock market drop, pop art

March 30, 2020

No one, I repeat no one can tell you which way the stock market is going to move in any one day, except me….It will go either up/down or sideways!!!!

Not very helpful is it?? If you’re really looking for this answer, you’re asking the wrong question. The stock market is a beautiful thing. Take all the news that’s happening in the world, at any point in time, (company guidance on earnings, monetary and fiscal policy discussions, political rhetoric) and try to put a price on it. Then on top of that throw in some emotion. The emotion of watching everything that you’ve saved your entire life disappearing before your eyes. It’s impossible to do, and if you think the market is an exact science then I have some swampland down here in Florida to sell you.

The market (today) gives the ability for everyone and anyone the ability to be an owner. The owner of a company, or the owner of many companies. There are stocks that trade for a few bucks, so anyone can do it. The market gives you a second by second price of what your company is worth and gives you the ability to buy and sell as you feel is appropriate.

However, the beauty of the market is also its biggest curse, if you decide to look at it that way. Now I can’t help you if you’re looking to make a quick buck. There are plenty of people around selling seminars on how to make it big trading securities, cause they have a strategy that is proven. I call bull shit!!! If these guys are that good…why are they selling anything? They would be on their yachts eating caviar and sipping champagne. Understanding someone’s motivation is the true key to what’s behind what they are saying. 

So, let me tell you my motivation. I manage money for my clients. I think my process is better than the other guys out there, mainly because I don’t buy funds and manage individual stocks and bonds. This means there is no middleman, and as such no hidden fees. I can tell you what you own and why, and in good markets and bad, what we are doing about it. I don’t report on what someone else has done, which is what’s happening if your advisor has bought you any type of fund.

If you’re now asking, “is this going to be a V shape, U shape, W shaped or L shaped recovery?” You’re asking the same freaking question as above! No one is able to tell you this, we have no idea what the news and/or emotion will be coming out next.

That said, I always say if you can do it yourself then you should. No one cares more about your money than you do. The questions you should be asking are:

  1. What has history showed when we have a market drop like this one?
  2. Do I think that the companies I want to own will give me a good return on investment over the next 2, 5, and/or 10 years?

Now depending on who you talk to, you may get different answers. I say, when you get vicious downturns like this, it has historically bounced back swiftly, and there are many companies that I feel can provide exceptional returns from this point. If things go lower from here, they can provide even better returns, and personally I think they will, but as I said earlier….no one knows!!!!

If you want to learn more about my current thinking, check out my articles on MICKCPM.com. Or if you would like to discuss how we manage money for our clients, give me a call at my office. I’m not closing, I’m here for my clients.

The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Mick Graham and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions.

Mick Graham, CPM®, AIF®

Financial Advisor/Branch Manager Raymond James Melbourne, FL

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